Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ Elsevier BV
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Chaos, Solitons & Fractals's content profile, based on 32 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.08% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Yamauchi, K.; Nirmale, A. G.
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In this study, resource-constrained learning methods were developed as a model for the learning behavior of the fly brain, specifically the mushroom body. Recent research on the mushroom bodies of flies shows that unfamiliar odors activate certain output neurons (MBONs); however, these effects are rapidly suppressed upon repeated exposure to the same odor. Such MBON behaviors appear to reflect odor learning. We investigated how flies continue learning about odors throughout their lives despite their small brains. Researchers have suggested that learning about new odors can help flies forget existing memories. Therefore, we hypothesized that the main reason for continual learning is that it serves as a strategy for forgetting. To test the validity of this hypothesis, we designed three models using a kernel perceptron. This approach is suitable for estimating ongoing learning capacity within a budget. According to the results of computer simulations and theoretical analysis, the model demonstrated the importance of forgetting mechanisms for two reasons: first, to prepare for subsequent learning sessions, and second, to reduce the negative effects of deleting memories.
Furuichi, S.; Kohno, T.
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The brain is believed to process information efficiently in a different manner from deep learning-based artificial intelligence (AI). Brain-like next-generation AI is gaining attention owing to its potential to perform human-like, highly adaptive, robust, and power-efficient computation. To realize such AI, one crucial approach is the bottom-up implementation of the neuronal systems, capturing their electrophysiological characteristics in electronic circuits. However, this neuromorphic approach generally focuses on simplified neuronal models that do not refer to many biological findings. Developing closer-to-brain models is a natural direction that serve as a fundamental computing model for next-generation AI. One of the constraints of neuromorphic circuits is the bit resolution of synaptic efficacy memory, as the memory footprint scales with it precision. Although low-resolution synaptic efficacy is essential for minimizing memory circuit footprint and energy consumption, it generally leads to performance degradation in many tasks such as the spatio-temporal spike pattern detection. This study proposed a closer-to-brain learning rule that incorporates heterosynaptic plasticity (HP) induced by glutamate spillover. It is demonstrated that our model mitigates the performance degradation associated with low-bit resolution synaptic efficacy, achieving the pattern detection success rate with 3-bit resolution synaptic efficacy, which is comparable to 64-bit floating-point precision. Furthermore, the findings of the study indicate that HP based model accelerates the convergence of the synaptic effcacy and effectively potentiates the synapses relevant to the pattern detection while suppressing irrelevant ones, thereby promoting a bimodal distribution of synaptic efficacies. These findings may provide a basic framework for constructing an energy-efficient, brain-like next-generation AI that maintains high performance under hardware constraints.
Musonda, R.; Ito, K.; Omori, R.; Ito, K.
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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continuously evolved since its emergence in the human population in 2019. As of 1st August 2025, more than 1,700 Omicron subvariants have been designated by the Pango nomenclature system. The Pango nomenclature system designates a new lineage based on genetic and epidemiological information of SARS-CoV-2 strains. However, there is a possibility that strains that have similar genetic backgrounds and the same phenotype are given different Pango lineage names. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FindPart-w, which can identify groups of viral lineages that share the same relative effective reproduction numbers. We introduced a new lineage replacement model, called the constrained RelRe model, which constrains groups of lineages to have the same relative effective reproduction numbers. The FindPart-w algorithm searches the equality constraints that minimise the Akaike Information Criterion of constrained RelRe models. Using hypothetical observation count data created by simulation, we found that the FindPart-w algorithm can identify groups of lineages having the same relative effective reproduction number in a practical computational time. Applying FindPart-w to actual real-world data of time-stamped lineage counts from the United States, we found that the Pango lineage nomenclature system may have given different lineage names to SARS-CoV-2 strains even if they have the same relative effective reproduction number and similar genetic backgrounds. In conclusion, this study showed that viruses that had the same relative effective reproduction number were identifiable from temporal count data of viral sequences. These findings will contribute to the future development of lineage designation systems that consider both genetic backgrounds and transmissibilities of lineages.
Sreekanth, J.; Salgado-Baez, E.; Edel, A.; Gruenewald, E.; Piper, S. K.; Spies, C.; Balzer, F.; Boie, S. D.
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Routine ICU data offers valuable insights into daily physiological rhythms. While traditional methods assume these cycles maintain fixed periods and amplitudes, their inherent variability requires dynamic estimation of instantaneous trends. Wavelet transform effectively resolves circadian oscillations, especially for frequently measured vital parameters. We present novel extensions to the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) power spectral analysis to better detect and segment subtle temporal patterns. Using this approach, we uncover hidden circadian patterns in cardiovascular vitals such as Heart Rate (HR) and Mean Blood Pressure (MBP) measured over five days in a retrospective cohort of 855 ICU patients. By quantifying non-stationary rhythms, we identified diurnal and semi-diurnal oscillations varying in period and power according to delirium and deep sedation. Notably, HR exhibits a clear diurnal and semi-diurnal rhythm when delirium is absent. Overall, our framework supports the CWT as a powerful tool for analyzing complex physiological signals, particularly vital signs. Crucially, our findings suggest that cardiovascular rhythm disruption can be associated with ICU-related delirium and deep sedation.
Usuzaki, T.; Matsunbo, E.; Inamori, R.
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Despite the remarkable progress of artificial intelligence represented by large language models, how AI technologies can contribute to the construction of evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) remains an overlooked issue. Now, we need an AI that can be compatible with EBM. In the present paper, we aim to propose an example analysis that may contribute to this approach using variable Vision Transformer.
Li, C.; Meadows, T.; Day, T.
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Within many bacterial colonies, persister cells exist as a subpopulation that is tolerant to antibiotics and other stressors, yet not genetically distinct from the rest of the colony. A recent study has proposed epigenetic inheritance as a mechanism that leads to the presence of persister cells. We analyze a nonlocal PDE--ODE model introduced in that study to describe the epigenetic inheritance process and establish its mathematical well-posedness, including existence, uniqueness, and nonnegativity of solutions. We identify a sharp parameter threshold delineating extinction from persistence of the colony: below this threshold the washout equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, while above it a unique positive equilibrium exists and the population is weakly persistent. Notably, this threshold is independent of the internal community structure.
Neumann, O. F.; Kravikass, M.; John, N.; Ramachandran, R. G.; Steinmann, P.; Zaburdaev, V.; Wehner, D.; Budday, S.
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Functional spinal cord repair in zebrafish is governed by regeneration-favorable biochemical and mechanical cues within the lesion microenvironment. Alterations in extracellular matrix composition and stiffness are closely associated with axon regeneration. However, experimentally dissecting the interplay between mechanical signals and axonal regrowth in vivo remains technically challenging. Here, we present an agent-based modeling framework to simulate stiffness-mediated axonal growth trajectories across the lesion. We use this model to explore potential mechanisms underlying the characteristic growth patterns observed during zebrafish spinal cord regeneration. Computational predictions were qualitatively compared with confocal imaging data obtained from larval zebrafish. These phenomenological comparisons revealed a close agreement between simulated and experimentally observed axon growth, indicating that experimentally observed patterns could be governed by transient changes in the stiffness profile of the spinal cord and lesion microenvironment. Hence, our computational framework provides an in silico platform for investigating the role of mechanical cues in axon regeneration in the injured spinal cord.
Duay, K.; Nagai, T.
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Realism and naturalness remain unresolved questions in vision science. This study investigates whether the physical gamut correlates with realism judgements. We conducted psychophysical experiments where observers judged the realism of natural scenes with target regions manipulated across the CIE 1931 color space. Results initially showed a moderate-to-strong correlation between judgements and a theoretical physical gamut derived from optimal colors. Further analysis revealed that the most detrimental points were in the saturated green region of the CIE 1931 xy chromaticity diagram; removing them yielded a very strong correlation. To explain this discrepancy, we modeled a real-world physical gamut based on USGS and ECOSTRESS spectral libraries. The analysis revealed that the detrimental green chromaticities might be non-existent in the real-world. Since physical gamut theory posits that the visual system constructs internal references through empirical observation of the world, the absence of these colors in nature might be a plausible explanation to the theoretical models failure. Ultimately, the real-world gamut exhibited an even stronger correlation with judgements, supporting our hypothesis while suggesting that the theoretical model may not be the optimal approximation of the actual physical gamut. These findings contribute to discussions on perceptual realism and offer a framework for enhancing rendering technologies.
Al-Naji, A.; Schubotz, R. I.; Zahedi, A.
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Research in cognitive neuroscience has relied on simple, highly controlled stimuli due to the difficulty in developing standardized, ecologically valid stimulus sets. However, there is a consensus that using ecologically valid stimuli is imperative to generalize results beyond controlled laboratory settings. The current study introduces a naturalistic audio stimulus database, consisting of short, recognizable, and emotionally rated stimuli. To create such a database, the current study collected 291 audio files from a wide range of sources. 361 participants rated the audio clips on emotionality, arousal, and recognizability, and subsequently freely described the audios by typing what they believed the sound to be. The text responses of the participants were embedded and clustered using an unsupervised machine-learning algorithm to derive a participant-grounded organization of auditory object categories. The results indicate audio clips were easily recognizable, while emotionality and arousal ratings showed broad variability, making the database suitable for diverse experimental needs. Furthermore, the final database comprises 10 distinct semantic categories, providing a diverse set of auditory stimuli.
Xu, Z.; Hong, B.; Li, L.; Xie, T.; Chen, Z.; Yao, H.; Zhang, T.
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Electrophysiological data, which serve as a biological signal that bridges neural activity and behavioral tasks, provide an innovative approach to neuroscience research. In this study, we constructed a dataset that contains over 2000 neurons across 117 days recorded in 20 mice containing 28,573 trials. Data for 5 mice were collected from the Secondary Motor Cortex (M2) region 8 mice was derived from the Ventrolateral Striatum (VLS) and 7 mice were from Substantia Nigra pars Reticulata (SNR). We induced licking behavior in head-fixed mice by periodically delivering water through a spout while simultaneously recording spiking activity from three brain regions and behavior related electrical signals. This dataset ensures precise temporal alignment between neural activity and behavioral events, offering a robust foundation for investigating neural encoding mechanisms and simulation of neural activities. This dataset establishes a precise spike-to-event mapping, which enables high decoding accuracy using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). It can serve as a high-quality benchmark for developing encoding and decoding algorithms in neural networks, particularly Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs).
Giri, R.; Agrawal, R.; Lamichhane, S. R.; Barma, S.; Mahatara, R.
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We are pleased to submit our Original article entitled "Assessing medication-related burden and medication adherence among older patients from Central Nepal: A machine learning approach" for consideration in your esteemed journal. In this paper, we assessed medication burden using validated Living with medicines Questionnaire (LMQ-3) and medication adherence using Adherence to Medication refills (ARMS) Scale. In this paper we analysed our result through machine learning approach in spite of traditional statistical approach to identify the complex factors influencing both. Six ML architectures (Ordinary Least Square, LightGBM, Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, and Penalized linear regression) were employed to predict ARMS and LMQ scores using various socio-demographic, clinical and medication-related predictive features. Model explainability was provided through SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations). Our study identified the moderate medication burden with moderate non-adherence among older adults. Requiring assistance for medication and polypharmacy were the strongest drivers for the medication burden and non-adherence. The high predictive accuracy by ML suggests the appropriate clinical intervention like deprescribing to cope with the high prevalent medication burden and non-adherence among older adults in Nepal.
Liardi, A.; Bor, D.; Rosas, F. E.; Mediano, P. A. M. E.
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Recent advances have shown that the complexity of neural signals tracks global states of consciousness, such as wakefulness versus sleep. However, it is still unclear to what extent neural complexity reflects fine-grained changes in conscious content within the same global state. Here, we investigate how the complexity of brain signals is affected by increased perceptual clarity of a stimulus. To this end, we estimated neural signal complexity using Complexity via State-space Entropy Rate (CSER) to EEG recordings from an auditory discrimination task. In this paradigm, auditory stimuli were presented at varying signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), with higher SNRs corresponding to greater subjective audibility and perceptual clarity, enabling us to relate neural complexity to graded perceptual awareness within a constant global state of consciousness. Our results showed that, while broadband CSER remains constant across SNRs, its spectral decomposition displays frequency-specific effects, with higher SNRs associated with a decreased complexity in and {beta} bands, increased complexity in{delta} , and no significant changes in{gamma} . Additionally, a temporal investigation of CSER exhibited a significant increase in complexity with stimulus clarity, with deviations from baseline peaking approximately 30 ms before the ERP. Extending this analysis to pairs of brain regions, mutual information rate uncovered a sudden post-stimulus breakdown in long-range information transmission relative to baseline. Taken together, these results reveal that while aggregated complexity measures track global states of consciousness, time- and frequency-resolved information-theoretic measures can capture variations in perceptual awareness, demonstrating their sensitivity as estimators of the level of conscious experience.
Dahle, S.; Einevoll, G. T.; Ness, T. V.
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There is an urgent need for better treatment options for many neurological conditions, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, depression, and epilepsy. Transcranial electrical stimulation (tES) is a non-invasive, safe, inexpensive, and promising method that could address some of this unmet need. The therapeutic value of tES has been well demonstrated, but the effect is highly variable. To enable tES to reach its full potential requires a better understanding of how tES modulates neural activity so that tES treatments can be tailored to specific neurological conditions and individual patients. The neural response to tES is, however, highly complex, and the parameter space involved in optimizing tES treatments is daunting. This has made it difficult to obtain general insights into how tES modulates neural activity, and a central challenge lies in the cell-type-specific and frequency-dependent nature of these responses. In this study, we investigate cell-type-specific neuronal responses to tES over a broad frequency range, using a large database of biophysically detailed neuron models. We find that pyramidal cells respond strongly to low-frequency tES, but their responses drop sharply with frequency. In contrast, inhibitory neurons show a smaller reduction and, on average, become more responsive than pyramidal cells above ~60 Hz. By leveraging a reciprocity theorem we demonstrate that the effect of tES on a given cell-type is proportional to the frequency-dependent current-dipole moment that determines the EEG-signal contribution of this cell-type. We further identified the dendritic asymmetry as key in determining tES responses across the frequency spectrum. Counterintuitively, we also found that while total cell length increases tES sensitivity at low frequencies, it can have the opposite effect at high frequencies. Furthermore, we derived an analytical formula for idealized neuron models which can approximately predict the tES sensitivity of different cell types at any given frequency. By characterizing the role of morphology and stimulation frequency in determining tES responses of single cells, this is an important step towards a better understanding of tES at the fundamental level. These results also provide an efficient and accurate method for characterizing and comparing the tES responses of different neural populations across the frequency spectrum, which facilitates optimizing tES for cell-type specific targeting.
Deng, F.; Li, H.; Sun, D.; Duan, G.; Sun, Z.; Xue, G.
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High level of protein expression is usually welcomed in industry and research, and codon optimization is widely used to achieve high expression. Methods of implementing codon optimization can be divided into two branches, one is classical methods which develop cost functions based on empirical law, another is AI methods which learn the codon choice principles from endogenous genes with neural networks. Here we develop two codon optimization tools based on two branches respectively, namely OptimWiz 2.1 and OptimWiz 3.0. Results of fusion protein fluorescence detection indicate that both OptimWiz 2.1 and OptimWiz 3.0 are superior to all the other commercially available codon optimization tools. Principles of codon optimization are revealed in the process of machine learning on both tools.
Chen, R.; Song, H.; Ching, S.; Braver, T. S.
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Across the last three decades, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) research - through both resting-state (rsfMRI) and task-based (tfMRI) studies - has greatly advanced our understanding regarding the neural basis of cognition. Yet the mechanistic relationship between rsfMRI and tfMRI is still poorly understood. In particular, it remains unclear how and why the brain activation patterns observed during the resting state are linked to cognitive functioning and individual differences present during task performance. Here, we test a unifying computational account which postulates that task contexts modulate the nonlinear attractor landscape and associated dynamical properties of the brain present under resting conditions, and further that the nature of this modulation is impacted by meaningful cognitive individual differences. To test this account, we develop a joint rsfMRI-tfMRI modeling and analysis framework called Mesoscale Individualized NeuroDynamics with eXogenous inputs (MINDy-X) and apply it to resting and N-back working memory task data from the Human Connectome Project. We first validated that the joint model can simulate and predict both rsfMRI and tfMRI data accurately, consistent with a common underlying dynamical system. Analyses of this joint model revealed that task-related modulation bifurcated the predominantly multistable attractor dynamics present during the resting state towards a predominantly monostable dynamics observed during N-back task states. This topological shift was also accompanied by a geometric reconfiguration, with the task state characterized by an enrichment of dynamical attractor "motifs" clustered around the frontoparietal (FPN) and default mode (DMN) networks. Task-related modulations of this attractor landscape were further subject to clear individual differences, such that individuals who did not exhibit a shift in attractor topology were more error-prone and less cautious in responding, while closer geometric proximity to the FPN and DMN motifs explained additional aspects of task performance. N-back behavior was best characterized by the combination of topological and geometric properties present in both task and rest states, suggesting that they each account for unique aspects of individual variability. The current work supports a novel computational framework for understanding the whole-brain neural activity patterns observed during rsfMRI and tfMRI as reflecting different states within a common non-linear dynamical system. This framework provides a new vocabulary for characterizing cognitive functioning in terms of the unique geometric and topological configuration of the associated attractor landscapes, with the potential for wide application in many domains of basic and clinical neuroscience research.
Raz, N.; Pridham, G.; Rera, M.; Alon, U.
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End of life is characterized by a phase of rapid physiological decline and high morbidity, phenotypically observed as the "Smurf" phase in Drosophila, metabolic end-of-life dysregulation in mice, and end-stage frailty in humans. Existing two-phase aging models often conceptualize this end-of-life phase as a discrete biological state. Here, we demonstrate that a continuous stochastic model of damage accumulation, the saturating removal (SR) model, captures these multi-species morbidity dynamics. By defining the end-of-life phase as a stochastic crossing of a sub-lethal damage threshold, the SR model accurately reproduces empirical end-of-life dynamics across flies, mice, and humans. The model predicts a surprising temporary reduction in hazard shortly after entering the end-of-life phase, resulting in a U-shaped hazard curve, consistent with the empirical data in all three organisms. It also correctly predicts a shortening twilight phenomenon where the mean duration of the end-of-life phase decreases the later its onset. We conclude that end-of-life dynamics are consistent with universal features of a driver of aging crossing a threshold for end-of-life morbidity and then a threshold for death.
Filippini, S.; Ridolfi, L.; von Hardenberg, J.
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Patterns in the vegetation across arid and semiarid regions may be explained as a form of self-organization driven by water scarcity, and are often modeled through reaction-diffusion dynamics. Recent work has shown that similar mathematical models generate patterns on networks. However, these studies have focused on idealized topologies with no reference to natural pattern-forming systems. Our study aims at bridging these two fields: we employ a physical reaction-diffusion vegetation model, and gradually modify the topology of the diffusion network by adding random shortcuts over a 2-dimensional grid, interpolating between a regular lattice and a random network. We found that network topology strongly shapes both the resulting vegetation patterns and the precipitation range that supports them. Three behavioral regimes emerge. On a regular lattice, high-regularity patterns develop reflecting local diffusion processes. On a random network, the system is dominated by global pressure towards homogenization yielding either a uniform state or a single patch. In the intermediate shortcut density range, as the network topology resembles a small world network, the interaction between the two scales of diffusion generates two kinds of disordered patterns: low-regularity patterns with a well-defined characteristic wavelength, and irregular patterns characterized by a broad patch size distribution. These disordered patterns resemble real-world observations and, in our model, they show different responses to changing precipitation. Although we focused on dryland vegetation, we suggest that network-mediated diffusion could lead to similar mechanisms in a wide variety of pattern-forming systems. HighlightsO_LIWe study vegetation pattern formation over different diffusion network topologies. C_LIO_LITwo kinds of stable disordered patterns states develop over small world topologies. C_LIO_LILow-regularity patterns with a well-defined characteristic wavelength. C_LIO_LIIrregular patterns characterized by a broad patch size distribution. C_LIO_LIThese different kinds of disordered states show different relations to precipitation. C_LI
Bolpagni, M.; Pozza, M.; Gabrielli, S.
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Chronic psychological stress contributes to allostatic load and is associated with cardiovascular, metabolic, and mental health disorders. Wearable devices enable continuous, noninvasive monitoring of autonomic signals such as heart rate variability (HRV), creating new opportunities for real-time stress assessment. Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as interfaces for interpreting such data, but it remains unclear whether their predictions reflect physiologically meaningful patterns or rely on superficial heuristics. In this study, we assess whether LLM-derived stress predictions are physiologically coherent and how this varies with model scale. Using a longitudinal wearable dataset collected in naturalistic conditions (35 participants; 5,100 five-minute windows with HRV and contextual features), we obtained stress pseudoprobabilities from three models in the Mistral 3 family (675B, 14B, 3B) via zero-shot prompting. To make model behavior interpretable, we trained surrogate models to approximate LLM outputs and analyzed feature-response relationships using SHAP. Our results indicate that surrogate models closely reproduced LLM predictions (R{superscript 2} up to 0.915; Cohen's k up to 0.941), enabling high-fidelity characterization of decision patterns and providing a practical framework for auditing the physiological coherence of LLM-derived predictions. Physiological coherence increased with model scale: the largest model exhibited near complete alignment with established HRV stress responses, together with stable, predominantly monotonic feature effects and a balanced integration of physiological and contextual information. This pattern weakened at smaller scales, with the mid scale model showing partial alignment and the smallest model displaying reduced stability, greater feature concentration, and more irregular, non monotonic relationships. These findings indicate that larger LLMs encode more physiologically consistent representations of stress, whereas smaller models rely on simplified and less stable strategies, and highlight the value of surrogate based analysis as a practical framework for evaluating LLM behavior in biomedical applications and supporting their responsible integration into wearable health analytics.
Wang, M.; Lu, T.; Song, Y.-h.; Li, y.
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BackgroundIn computational biology, embedding known physical laws into deep learning models to construct "Physics-Informed Neural Networks" (PINNs) is a mainstream paradigm for enhancing model interpretability and extrapolation capability. However, in complex multi-physics coupling problems, there is a risk of competitive imbalance between the physical term and the flexible artificial intelligence (AI) residual term, causing the model to degenerate into a "black-box" fit and lose the original purpose of being physics-driven. MethodsIn this study, targeting the problem of predicting protein liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS) behavior in response to environmental factors (temperature, salt concentration), we identified physical distortions, gradient vanishing, and numerical instability in the initial physics-AI hybrid model. Three core correction strategies were proposed: (1) Weight Allocation Logic Reconstruction: Force the physical trunk weight to 1.0 at the output layer, suppressing the AI residual term to the perturbation level of 0.05~0.1, ensuring physics dominance; (2) Robust Physics Formula Construction: Abandon the unstable power function and introduce a combination of Softplus and logarithmic functions to stably simulate the nonlinear effects of charge shielding; (3) Gain Compensation Alignment: Apply gain compensation to the weak signal branch (temperature) to ensure its effective participation in optimization. ResultsThe optimized model maintained a fitting accuracy of R2{approx}0.62 on the test set, while physical consistency was significantly enhanced. The model successfully restored the monotonic increase in solubility with temperature characteristic of UCST-type phase diagrams and correctly captured the nonlinear charge shielding features in the salt concentration response. The weights of key physical parameters (e.g., hydrophobic contribution w_h, net charge contribution w_ncpr) increased from <10-3 to the 10-2 magnitude, demonstrating the reactivation of the physical branch. ConclusionsThe weight control, formula stabilization, and signal gain alignment strategies proposed in this study effectively address the classic problem of "AI hijacking" physics in physics-AI hybrid models. This work provides a universal solution for constructing biophysical predictive models that combine high fitting accuracy with strong physical interpretability.
Huang, K.; Marmor, G.; van der Molen, T.; Zhang, Z.; Gicqueau, P.; Reveles, J.; Morrissey, K.; Tang, J.; Lu, L.; Ilmi, K.; Lue, J.; Barba Zuniga, G.; Miller, M. B.; Kosik, K. S.; Yang, H.; Santander, T.; Bullo, F.; Hansma, P. K.
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Chronic pain presents a leading challenge in the world today for both clinicians and researchers. Because chronic pain is difficult to explain and treat, it is often managed with opioids despite providing limited relief and contributing to dependence and misuse. Persistent pain can be maintained by altered central nervous system processing even in the absence of distinct tissue damage or disease, which may limit the efficacy of conventional pharmacological therapies that target nociceptive signal transmission rather than maladaptive central nervous system dynamics often present in those with chronic pain. Although neuroimaging studies have identified this shift from nociceptive to emotional circuits during pain chronification, a quantitative framework linking these neural changes to longitudinal pain trajectories or recovery is lacking. We present a parsimonious firing-rate model that can account for the development of and recovery from chronic pain, which is based on the theoretical framework established by Wilson and Cowan. The model provides a quantitative explanation of how sensitization, anxiety, and fear maintain pain even after an injury has healed, and how calming stimulus downregulates these processes to facilitate recovery. A study applying the same principles as the model produced an average pain decrease of 3.5 on the Visual Analog Scale (VAS), with all subjects experiencing a reduction in pain. These results, coupled with our model and findings in prior studies, suggest that increasing calming stimulus can reduce pain without necessitating pharmacological or invasive, resource-intensive interventions.